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The Scorecard

The Market Ledger

Most commentary on marketing can never be wrong, because it never says anything specific enough. Every forecast here carries a deadline and a confidence level. When the deadline arrives, it is marked hit, miss or too early. Entries are never removed.

4 open forecasts · grows with every new piece

Due by 2030

  • By 2030, at least two major grocery apps in the US, the UK or India will open on a pre-filled basket, rather than a search box, as the default screen for returning customers

    Made in The Tired Consumer · The Xplore Dispatch

    55% confidence · Open

  • By 2030: at least three of the world's 50 largest advertisers will publish a recurring measure of one hidden account with a disclosed method, such as share of sales at full price or experimentally tested marketing return

    Made in All Growth Is Borrowed · Xplore Blueprints

    45% confidence · Open

  • By 2030: at least one Fortune Global 500 consumer company will tie part of its top marketing executive's pay to a disclosed non-revenue measure of brand or customer asset health

    Made in All Growth Is Borrowed · Xplore Blueprints

    40% confidence · Open

Due by 2031

  • By 2031: a published study using firm-level data will show that drawdown proxies predict revenue decline at least four quarters ahead, beyond what sales trends alone predict

    Made in All Growth Is Borrowed · Xplore Blueprints

    55% confidence · Open